An analysis method for the maturity of power technology based on literature search

LIU Wenjing; ZHANG Suxiang; SHENG Xing; TANG Yuzheng; SUN Tao; HE Dongshan

doi:10.11959/j.issn.1000-0801.2025014

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An analysis method for the maturity of power technology based on literature search

Engineering and Application | 更新时间：2025-03-11

- An analysis method for the maturity of power technology based on literature search
- Telecommunications Science Vol. 41, Issue 2, Pages: 146-157(2025)
- 作者机构：
  
  1.国家电网有限公司信息通信分公司，北京 100761
  2.国家电网有限公司，北京 100031
  3.国网河南省电力公司电力科学研究院，河南郑州 450052
  4.国网安徽省电力有限公司电力科学研究院，安徽合肥 230601
  5.中国电力科学研究院有限公司，北京 100192
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
  
  The Information and Communication Branch of State Grid Co., Ltd. Manages the Science and Technology Projects by Itself(529939230007)
- DOI：10.11959/j.issn.1000-0801.2025014
  CLC： TM7
- Received：13 November 2024，
  
  Revised：2024-12-23，
  
  Published：20 February 2025
- 稿件说明：
移动端阅览
刘雯静,张素香,盛兴等.基于文献检索的电力技术成熟度分析方法[J].电信科学,2025,41(02):146-157.

LIU Wenjing,ZHANG Suxiang,SHENG Xing,et al.An analysis method for the maturity of power technology based on literature search[J].Telecommunications Science,2025,41(02):146-157.
刘雯静,张素香,盛兴等.基于文献检索的电力技术成熟度分析方法[J].电信科学,2025,41(02):146-157. DOI： 10.11959/j.issn.1000-0801.2025014.

LIU Wenjing,ZHANG Suxiang,SHENG Xing,et al.An analysis method for the maturity of power technology based on literature search[J].Telecommunications Science,2025,41(02):146-157. DOI： 10.11959/j.issn.1000-0801.2025014.

摘要

我国电力行业已经历了一段高速发展时期，随着全球能源结构的转型，我国提出了建设新型电力系统的发展目标，为下一阶段电力技术的发展指明了方向。然而，少有人对我国电力技术的成熟度评价方法进行研究。为此，提出了基于高纳德回环曲线的电力技术成熟度预测方法。首先，将成熟度曲线分解为研究热度和技术发展两个因素；然后，分别对电力科技文献和专利检索数据进行拟合，建立了表征这两个因素发展历程的Logistpk和Slogistic曲线模型，并结合新型电力系统六大领域技术的现状，对模型正确性进行了验证；最后，通过合成研究热度和技术发展曲线，得到电力技术成熟度模型，并对电力技术发展成熟期进行了预测。

Abstract

China’s power industry has gone through a period of rapid development. With the transformation of the global energy structure

the development goal of building a new type of power system was proposed

which pointed out the direction for the next stage of power technology development. However

few people have conducted research on the maturity evaluation method of China’s power technology. A method for predicting the maturity of power technology based on the Gartner Hype Cycle was proposed. Firstly

the maturity curve was decomposed into two factors: research popularity and technological development. Then

fitting was performed on the literature and patent search data of power technology

Logistpk and Slogistic curve models were established to characterize the development process of the two factors. The correctness of the models was verified by combining the current status of the six major fields of technology in the new power system. Finally

based on the synthesis of research popularity and technology development curves

a maturity model for power technology was obtained

and the maturity period of power technology development was predicted.

关键词

Keywords

references

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