A risk assessment method for electricity trading based on adaptive weights and context-aware mechanisms

Xu Daoqiang; Wang Jianghui; Xu Menghan; Zhan Tianming; Lyu Congdong

doi:10.11959/j.issn.1000-0801.DXKX250283

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A risk assessment method for electricity trading based on adaptive weights and context-aware mechanisms

Research and Development | 更新时间：2026-06-17

- A risk assessment method for electricity trading based on adaptive weights and context-aware mechanisms
- Telecommunications Science Vol. 42, Issue 5, Pages: 143-154(2026)
- 作者机构：
  
  1.国网江苏省电力有限公司，江苏南京 210024
  2.江苏方天电力技术有限公司，江苏南京 211100
  3.南京审计大学计算机学院，江苏南京 211815
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
  
  The National Natural Science Foundation of China(61976117)
- DOI：10.11959/j.issn.1000-0801.DXKX250283
  CLC： TP393
- Received：06 May 2025，
  
  Revised：2025-06-17，
  
  Accepted：27 June 2025，
  
  Published：20 May 2026
- 稿件说明：
移动端阅览
许道强,王江辉,许梦晗等.基于自适应权重与情境感知机制的电力交易风险评估方法[J].电信科学,2026,42(05):143-154.

Xu Daoqiang,Wang Jianghui,Xu Menghan,et al.A risk assessment method for electricity trading based on adaptive weights and context-aware mechanisms[J].Telecommunications Science,2026,42(05):143-154.
许道强,王江辉,许梦晗等.基于自适应权重与情境感知机制的电力交易风险评估方法[J].电信科学,2026,42(05):143-154. DOI： 10.11959/j.issn.1000-0801.DXKX250283.

Xu Daoqiang,Wang Jianghui,Xu Menghan,et al.A risk assessment method for electricity trading based on adaptive weights and context-aware mechanisms[J].Telecommunications Science,2026,42(05):143-154. DOI： 10.11959/j.issn.1000-0801.DXKX250283.

摘要

提出一种基于自适应权重与情境感知机制的电力交易风险评估方法，通过多模型融合策略显著提升预测精度与风险管理能力。该方法结合历史表现与时间衰减因子，动态优化线性回归、随机森林及长短期记忆（long short-term memory，LSTM）网络权重的自适应权重调整机制，并根据市场波动、极端天气或政策事件触发规则，动态调整模型权重，以应对突发场景，构建情境感知切换逻辑；采用梯度提升决策树（gradient boosting decision tree，GBDT）整合基础模型预测与市场特征，提升复杂场景鲁棒性的元学习器优化策略。实验表明，混合模型在均方误差（mean square error，MSE）为21.3、平均绝对误差（mean absolute error，MAE）为3.1和决定系数（coefficient of determination，

²）为0.89时优于单一模型，其中自适应权重贡献性能提升10%，情境感知的误差降低5%。在电价单日波动率大于20%、连续高温或政策突变等极端场景下，模型通过动态权重调整显著降低了误差，在提升收益的同时降低了风险。该方法为电力市场提供了科学的风险管理工具，增强了市场稳定性与经济效益，未来可将其应用拓展至金融风险评估领域，并在联邦学习、实时优化与规则自动化等方向进一步探索。

Abstract

An electricity trading risk assessment method based on an adaptive weighting and context-aware mechanism was proposed

which significantly enhanced prediction accuracy and risk management capabilities through a multi-model fusion strategy. The method incorporates an adaptive weight adjustment mechanism that dynamically optimizes

the weights of linear regression

random forest

and long short-term memory(LSTM) models by combining historical performance with time decay factors. Additionally

it employs a context-aware switching logic triggered by market volatility

extreme weather

or policy events to dynamically adjust model weights in response to sudden scenarios. A meta-learner optimization strategy using gradient boosting decision tree(GBDT) integrates the predictions of base models with market features to improve robustness in complex scenarios. Experimental results demonstrate that the hybrid model outperforms individual models across key metrics

including mean square error(MSE) of 21.3

mean absolute error(MAE) of 3.1

and

² of 0.89. The adaptive weighting mechanism contributes to a 10% performance improvement

while context-aware switching further reduces errors by 5%. In extreme scenarios such as daily price volatility exceeding 20%

prolonged high temperatures

or sudden policy changes

the model significantly mitigates errors through dynamic weight adjustments. The hybrid model not only enhances returns but also reduces risks. This method provides a scientific risk management tool for electricity markets

enhancing market stability and economic efficiency. It holds potential for extension to financial risk assessment domains and future exploration in federated learning

real-time optimization

and rule automation.

关键词

Keywords

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江苏方天电力技术有限公司

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