我国信息通信技术创新扩散效应及预测实证研究

胡文玉; 王文举

doi:10.11959/j.issn.1000-0801.2020015

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我国信息通信技术创新扩散效应及预测实证研究

研究与开发 | 更新时间：2024-06-05

- 我国信息通信技术创新扩散效应及预测实证研究
- Empirical research on the diffusion effect of ICT innovation diffusion and prediction in China
- 电信科学 2020年36卷第1期页码：66-76
- 作者机构：
  
  1. 首都经济贸易大学，北京100070
  2. 北京中智博咨询有限公司，北京 102200
  3. 北京物资学院，北京 101100
- 作者简介：
  
  [ "胡文玉（1977− ），男，博士，首都经济贸易大学/北京中智博咨询有限公司工程师、公司运营总监，主要研究方向为信息通信技术（ICT）行业服务与消费洞察、数据分析与挖掘、数据建模" ]
  [ "王文举（1965− ），男，博士，北京物资学院经济学院教授，首都经济贸易大学数量经济学博士生导师，主要研究方向为博弈论与计量经济分析" ]
- 基金信息：
  
  国家社会科学基金重大项目;Major Program of The National Social Science Fund of China(14ZDA072)
- DOI：10.11959/j.issn.1000-0801.2020015
  中图分类号： F623
- 网络出版日期：2020-01，
  
  纸质出版日期：2020-01-20
- 稿件说明：
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胡文玉, 王文举. 我国信息通信技术创新扩散效应及预测实证研究[J]. 电信科学, 2020,36(1):66-76.

Wenyu HU, Wenju WANG. Empirical research on the diffusion effect of ICT innovation diffusion and prediction in China[J]. Telecommunications science, 2020, 36(1): 66-76.
胡文玉, 王文举. 我国信息通信技术创新扩散效应及预测实证研究[J]. 电信科学, 2020,36(1):66-76. DOI： 10.11959/j.issn.1000-0801.2020015.

Wenyu HU, Wenju WANG. Empirical research on the diffusion effect of ICT innovation diffusion and prediction in China[J]. Telecommunications science, 2020, 36(1): 66-76. DOI： 10.11959/j.issn.1000-0801.2020015.

摘要

结合我国信息通信技术（ICT）的特点，应用Bass扩展模型对ICT创新扩散效应进行了实证研究。结果表明遗传算法曲线拟合估计效果更好。此外，应用非累计采用者Bass模型从技术演进、业务类型、区域分布及省市等维度对ICT创新扩散效果进行实证分析，得出创新扩散随着ICT的演进创新效应驱动显著，对3G/4G、宽带互联网、数字电视及其融合业务更为明显的结论。最后，采用非累计Bass模型运用遗传算法对固话、移动、宽带和广播电视未来5年的用户规模进行了预测。

Abstract

Based on the characteristics of information and communication technology (ICT) in China

an empirical study was made on the diffusion effect of ICT innovation using Bass extension model.The results show that the curve fitting estimation effect of genetic algorithm was remarkable.In addition

non-cumulative adopter model was used to empirically analyze the diffusion effect of ICT innovation from the aspects of technology evolution

business

region and provinces.It was concluded that innovation diffusion was significantly driven by innovation effect along with the evolution of ICT

especially 3G/4G

broadband Internet

digital TV and their convergent business.Finally

the non-cumulative Bass model using genetic algorithm were used to predict the user size of fixed-line

mobile

broad-band

radio and television in the next five years.

关键词

Keywords

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