基于系统动力学的网络舆情驱动力模型研究

曹峰; 张真继; 关晓兰

doi:10.11959/j.issn.1000-0801.2020322

您当前的位置：

首页 >

文章列表页 >

基于系统动力学的网络舆情驱动力模型研究

研究与开发 | 更新时间：2024-06-05

- 基于系统动力学的网络舆情驱动力模型研究
- Research on the driving force model of internet public opinion based on system dynamics
- 电信科学 2020年36卷第12期页码：49-58
- 作者机构：
  
  1. 北京交通大学，北京 100044
  2. 北京印刷学院，北京 102600
- 作者简介：
  
  [ "曹峰（1967- ），男，博士，现就职于北京交通大学经济管理学院，青岛市委宣传部副部长、文明办主任，主要研究方向为网络舆情传播的动力机制" ]
  [ "张真继（1963- ），男，博士，北京交通大学教授、博士生导师，主要研究方向为网络社会生态学" ]
  [ "关晓兰（1984- ），女，博士，北京印刷学院副教授，主要研究方向为信息化理论与方法" ]
- 基金信息：
  
  哲学社会科学北京市规划局重大计划资助项目;Beijing Planning Office of Philosophy and Social Science Specially Entrusted Projects(13ZDB10)
- DOI：10.11959/j.issn.1000-0801.2020322
  中图分类号： TP393
- 网络出版日期：2020-12，
  
  纸质出版日期：2020-12-20
- 稿件说明：
移动端阅览
曹峰, 张真继, 关晓兰. 基于系统动力学的网络舆情驱动力模型研究[J]. 电信科学, 2020,36(12):49-58.

Feng CAO, Zhenji ZHANG, Xiaolan GUAN. Research on the driving force model of internet public opinion based on system dynamics[J]. Telecommunications science, 2020, 36(12): 49-58.
曹峰, 张真继, 关晓兰. 基于系统动力学的网络舆情驱动力模型研究[J]. 电信科学, 2020,36(12):49-58. DOI： 10.11959/j.issn.1000-0801.2020322.

Feng CAO, Zhenji ZHANG, Xiaolan GUAN. Research on the driving force model of internet public opinion based on system dynamics[J]. Telecommunications science, 2020, 36(12): 49-58. DOI： 10.11959/j.issn.1000-0801.2020322.

摘要

网络舆情作为社会舆情在互联网空间的映射，反过来影响着社会实体事件的发展进程。提升网络舆情处置能力，已成为管理部门的一项重要任务。分析了网络舆情的传播规律及其特点，利用系统动力学分析了网络舆论生态传播系统的驱动因素，通过因果回路图对因素之间的关系进行定性分析，并建立网络舆情驱动力模型。最后，对该模型进行仿真分析，以期提出积极管理网络舆情传播的建议。

Abstract

Internet public opinion

as a reflection of social public opinion in the internet space

in turn affects the development process of social entity events.Improving the ability to deal with online public opinion has become an important task for party committees and government departments at all levels.The rules and characteristics of the spread of online public opinion were analyzed

system dynamics was used to analyze the driving factors of the ecological spread of online public opinion

the relationship between factors was analyzed through causal loop diagrams

and a model of the driving force of online public opinion was established.Finally

the model was simulated and analyzed

in order to put forward suggestions for actively managing the spread of online public opinion.

关键词

Keywords

references

张利英 . 新闻舆论工作必须过好互联网这一关 [J ] . 红旗文稿 , 2017 ( 5 ):39.

ZHANG L Y . News and public opinion work must pass the internet barrier [J ] . Red Flag Manuscript , 2017 ( 5 ):39.

谢昕未 . 基于生命周期理论的网络舆情传播机理及预警系统研究 [D ] . 北京:北京交通大学 , 2015 .

XIE X W . Research on the dissemination mechanism and early warning system of internet public opinion based on life cycle theory [D ] . Beijing:Beijing Jiaotong University , 2015 .

殷飞 , 张鹏 , 兰月新 , 等 . 基于系统动力学的突发事件网络谣言治理研究 [J ] . 情报科学 , 2018 , 36 ( 4 ): 57 - 63 .

YIN F , ZHANG P , LAN Y X , et al . Research on network rumor governance of emergencies based on system dynamics [J ] . Information Science , 2018 , 36 ( 4 ): 57 - 63 .

李纲 , 董琦 . Web2.0环境下企业网络舆情传播过程的研究及实证分析 [J ] . 情报科学 , 2011 ( 12 ): 1810 - 1814 .

LI G , DONG Q . Research and empirical analysis on the process of enterprise network public opinion communication under Web2.0 environment [J ] . Information Science , 2011 ( 12 ): 1810 - 1814 .

赵媛 . 郭美美事件网络传播中的意见扩散研究 [D ] . 保定:河北大学 , 2012 .

ZHAO Y . Research on opinion diffusion in the internet communication of Guo Meimei incident [D ] . Baoding:Hebei University , 2012 .

DROSSEL B , SCHWABL F . Self-organized critical forest-fire model [J ] . Physical Review Letters , 1992 , 191 ( 1-4 ): 47 - 50 .

曾小梦 . 基于网民心理的网络舆情引导研究 [D ] . 长沙:湖南大学 , 2013 .

ZENG X M . Research on the guidance of internet public opinion based on the psychology of netizens [D ] . Changsha:Hunan University , 2013 .

戴建华 , 杭家蓓 . 基于模糊规则的元胞自动机网络舆论传播模型研究 [J ] . 情报杂志 , 2012 , 31 ( 7 ): 16 - 20 .

DAI J H , HANG J B . Research on cellular automata network public opinion propagation model based on fuzzy rules [J ] . Journal of Intelligence , 2012 , 31 ( 7 ): 16 - 20 .

袁国平 , 许晓兵 . 基于系统动力学的关于突发事件后网络舆情热度研究 [J ] . 情报科学 , 2015 , 33 ( 10 ): 52 - 56 .

YUAN G H , XU X B . Research on the popularity of network public opinion after emergencies based on system dynamics [J ] . Information Science , 2015 , 33 ( 10 ): 52 - 56 .

高航 . 政府舆情应对能力系统动力学建模与仿真研究 [J ] . 情报科学 , 2016 , 34 ( 2 ): 133 - 138 .

GAO H . Research on system dynamics modeling and simulation of government public opinion response ability [J ] . Information Science , 2016 , 34 ( 2 ): 133 - 138 .

王光辉 , 刘怡君 . 基于系统动力学的舆论风险形成及干预策略 [J ] . 系统工程 , 2014 , 32 ( 5 ): 82 - 91 .

WANG G H , LIU Y J . Public opinion risk formation and intervention strategy based on system dynamics [J ] . Systems Engneering , 2014 , 32 ( 5 ): 82 - 91 .

狄国强 , 曾华艺 , 勒中坚 , 等 . 网络舆情事件的系统动力学模型与仿真 [J ] . 情报杂志 , 2012 , 31 ( 8 ): 12 - 20 .

DI G Q , ZENG H Y , LE Z J , et al . System dynamics model and simulation of internet public opinion events [J ] . Journal of Intelligence , 2012 , 31 ( 8 ): 12 - 20 .

钟慧玲 , 李伟 , 张冠湘 . “邻避”冲突事件网络舆情演化研究 [J ] . 情报杂志 , 2016 , 35 ( 3 ): 111 - 117 .

ZHONG H L , LI W , ZHANG G X . Research on the evolution of internet public opinion on “neighbor avoidan” conflict events [J ] . Journal of Intelligence , 2016 , 35 ( 3 ): 111 - 117 .

赵玲 , 张静 , 王欢 . 微博对群体性事件助燃的动力学机制分析——以“昆明 PX 事件”为例 [J ] . 情报杂志 , 2013 , 32 ( 8 ): 50 - 56 .

ZHAO L , ZHANG J , WANG H . Analysis of the dynamic mechanism of Weibo’s support for mass incidents——taking the“Kunming PX incident” as an example [J ] . Journal of Intelligence , 2013 , 32 ( 8 ): 50 - 56 .

余乐安 , 李玲 , 武佳倩 , 等 . 基于系统动力学的危化品水污染突发事件中网络舆情危机应急策略研究 [J ] . 系统工程理论与实践 , 2015 , 35 ( 10 ): 2687 - 2697 .

YU L A , LI L , WU J Q , et al . Research on emergency strategy of network public opinion crisis in emergency of water pollution of hazardous chemicals based on system dynamics [J ] . System Engineering Theory and Practice , 2015 , 35 ( 10 ): 2687 - 2697 .

陈福集 , 叶萌 . 系统动力学视角下政府回应网络舆情的能力提升研究 [J ] . 情报杂志 , 2013 , 32 ( 11 ): 121 - 127 .

CHEN F J , YE M . Research on the improvement of government’s ability to respond to internet public opinion from the perspective of system dynamics [J ] . Journal of Intelligence , 2013 , 32 ( 11 ): 121 - 127 .

聂峰英 , 张旸 . 移动社交网络舆情预警模型构建 [J ] . 大学图书情报学刊 , 2015 , 33 ( 6 ): 118 - 122 .

NIE F Y , ZHANG Y . Construction of early warning model of public opinion on mobile social networks [J ] . Journal of Academic Library and Information Science , 2015 , 33 ( 6 ): 118 - 122 .

王高飞 , 李明 , 李梅 . 基于系统动力学的移动社交网络舆情应对策略研究 [J ] . 情报科学 , 2016 , 34 ( 10 ): 38 - 42 .

WANG G F , LI M , LI M . Research on public opinion response strategies of mobile social networks based on system dynamics [J ] . Information Science , 2016 , 34 ( 10 ): 38 - 42 .

林芹 , 郭东强 . 企业网络舆情传播的系统动力学仿真研究——基于传播主体特性 [J ] . 情报科学 , 2017 , 35 ( 4 ): 54 - 60 ,67.

LI Q , GUO D Q . Research on system dynamics simulation of enterprise network public opinion communication—based on the characteristics of communication subject [J ] . Information Science , 2017 , 35 ( 4 ): 54 - 60 ,67.

陈福集 , 庄彩云 . 网络舆情危机事件中政府应对能力提升研究—基于系统动力学视角 [J ] . 信息安全与通信保密 , 2015 ( 6 ): 92 - 98 .

CHEN F J , ZHUANG C Y . Research on improving government’s response ability in internet public opinion crisis events-based on the perspective of system dynamics [J ] . China Information Security , 2015 ( 6 ): 92 - 98 .

浏览量

428

下载量

CSCD

文章被引用时，请邮件提醒。

提交

工具集

关联资源

5GtoB规模化发展六大问题的思考和认识