An analysis method for electricity consumption in peak load period of summer based on regression analysis

Yuze CHEN; Lei LI; Xuemin FANG; Jian LIU; Jiakui ZHAO; Yuxi LIU; Songlin ZUO

doi:10.11959/j.issn.1000-0801.2019274

您当前的位置：

首页 >

文章列表页 >

An analysis method for electricity consumption in peak load period of summer based on regression analysis

Power informatization column | 更新时间：2024-06-05

- An analysis method for electricity consumption in peak load period of summer based on regression analysis
- Telecommunications Science Vol. 35, Issue 11, Pages: 125-131(2019)
- 作者机构：
  
  1. 国网信息通信产业集团有限公司，北京 100085
  2. 国家电网有限公司，北京 100031
  3. 国家电网有限公司大数据中心，北京 100031
  4. 国网安徽省电力有限公司，安徽合肥 340001
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
- DOI：10.11959/j.issn.1000-0801.2019274
  CLC： TN915
- Published Online：2019-11，
  
  Published：20 November 2019
- 稿件说明：
移动端阅览
Yuze CHEN, Lei LI, Xuemin FANG, et al. An analysis method for electricity consumption in peak load period of summer based on regression analysis[J]. Telecommunications science, 2019, 35(11): 125-131.
DOI：

Yuze CHEN, Lei LI, Xuemin FANG, et al. An analysis method for electricity consumption in peak load period of summer based on regression analysis[J]. Telecommunications science, 2019, 35(11): 125-131. DOI： 10.11959/j.issn.1000-0801.2019274.

摘要

利用回归分析算法，提出了一种迎峰度夏期间最高气温与日用电量关系分析方法，首先利用皮尔森相关系数对度夏期间的最高气温和日用电量相关程度进行定量分析，然后利用回归分析算法建立最高气温和日用电量的拟合函数，并利用最小二乘法进行求解，得到最高气温和日用电量相关关系的定量分析结果。研究结果表明，提出的度夏期间用电量分析方法能够定量地给出气温变化导致的用电量变化情况，并能根据分析结果对未来几天的日用电量进行准确预测。

Abstract

A method for analyzing the relationship between daily maximum temperature and electricity consumption during peak load period was proposed.Firstly

the relationship between maximum temperature and electricity consumption was quantified by Pearson correlation coefficient.Secondly

the functional relationship was established using regression and solved by least squares method.The quantified result of the relationship between maximum temperature and electricity consumption was then acquired.The empirical research shows the proposed method for electricity consumption analysis during peak load period of summer can quantify the variation of daily electricity consumption caused by temperature change and predict electricity consumption of the next few days according to the analysis result.

关键词

Keywords

references

刘勇 , 李淼 , 李大虎 , 等 . 2010 年湖北电网迎峰度夏运行分析 [J ] . 湖北电力 , 2010 , 34 ( S2 ): 1 - 6 .

LIU Y , LI M , LI D H , et al . The analysis of Hubei Power Grid operation in peak load period of summer 2010 [J ] . Hubei Electric Power , 2010 , 34 ( S2 ): 1 - 6 .

季斌 , 黄松泉 . 2011 年迎峰度夏湖北城市配网运行分析 [J ] . 湖北电力 , 2011 , 35 ( S1 ): 34 - 41 .

JI B , HUANG S Q . The analysis of Hubei urban power grid operation in peak load period of summer 2011 [J ] . Hubei Electric Power , 2011 , 35 ( S1 ): 34 - 41 .

程建翼 , 陈明珠 . 2011 年迎峰度夏湖北电网可靠性分析 [J ] . 湖北电力 , 2011 , 35 ( S1 ): 74 - 76 .

CHENG J Y , CHEN M Z . The analysis of the reliability of Hubei Power Grid in peak load period of summer 2011 [J ] . Hubei Electric Power , 2011 , 35 ( S1 ): 74 - 76 .

张俊 , 陈卫勇 , 喻子易 , 等 . 2011 年迎峰度夏农网运行情况分析 [J ] . 湖北电力 , 2011 , 35 ( S1 ): 42 - 50 .

ZHANG J , CHEN W Y , YU Z Y , et al . The analysis of rural power grid operation in peak load period of summer 2011 [J ] . Hubei Electric Power , 2011 , 35 ( S1 ): 42 - 50 .

胡元 , 徐沐阳 , 程丽君 . 考虑气象因子的温州市日用电量指数预报 [J ] . 中国科技信息 , 2014 ,( 23 ): 55 - 56 .

HU Y , XU M Y , CHENG L J . Forecasting daily power consumption of Wenzhou considering meteorological factors [J ] . China Science and Technology Information , 2014 ,( 23 ): 55 - 56 .

郭广芬 , 陈正洪 , 汪金福 , 等 . 华中区域夏季日用电量气象预报模型研究 [J ] . 华中师范大学学报(自然科学版) , 2009 , 43 ( 2 ): 327 - 331 .

GUO G F , CHEN Z H , WANG J F , et al . Research on meteorological forecast model of daily power consumption during summer in central China [J ] . Journal of Huazhong Normal University (Natural Science) , 2009 , 43 ( 2 ): 327 - 331 .

洪国平 , 李银娥 , 孙新德 , 等 . 武汉市电网用电量、电力负荷与气温的关系及预测模型研究 [J ] . 华中电力 , 2006 , 19 ( 2 ): 4 - 7 .

HONG G P , LI Y E , SUN X D , et al . Relation and forecast model research between the electricity consumption,the load and the air temperature in Wuhan [J ] . Central China Electric Power , 2006 , 19 ( 2 ): 4 - 7 .

王桂新 , 沈续雷 . 气温变化对上海市日电力消费影响关系之考察 [J ] . 华北电力大学学报(社会科学版) , 2015 , 93 ( 1 ): 35 - 41 .

WANG G X , SHEN X L . Impact of temperature change on daily electricity consumption in shanghai [J ] . Journal of North China Electric Power University (Social Sciences) , 2015 , 93 ( 1 ): 35 - 41 .

赵彤 , 孙大雁 , 葛诚 , 等 . 江苏电网夏季气温与用电量敏感性关系初探 [J ] . 电力需求侧管理 , 2004 , 6 ( 6 ): 20 - 21 .

ZHAO T , SUN D Y , GE C , et al . Research of sensitive relation between summertime temperature and electric power consuming in Jiangsu province [J ] . Power Demand Side Management , 2004 , 6 ( 6 ): 20 - 21 .

SHEN X , . Symmetry recurrence in protein sequence and structure with pearson’s correlation coefficients [C ] // Proceedings of the 2012 IEEE International Conference on Biomedical and Health Informatics,January 4-7,2012,Hong Kong,China . Piscataway:IEEE Press , 2012 : 832 - 835 .

LEO E , LOET L . The relation between pearson’s correlation coefficient r and salton’s cosine measure [J ] . Journal of the American Society for Information Science and Technology , 2009 , 60 ( 5 ): 1027 - 1036 . DOI: 10.1002/asi.v60:5 http://doi.org/10.1002/asi.v60:5 http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/asi.v60%3A5 http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/asi.v60%3A5

Views

159

下载量

CSCD

Alert me when the article has been cited

提交

Tools

Publicity Resources

Research on 4G/5G voice quality optimization based on data mining and geographic visualization

AdaBoost algorithm based on fitted weak classifier

An adjustment method for electricity sales forecasting result considering the effects of spring festival

Related Author

Lei SUN

Yiyan YIN

Xiaokang YANG

Jingui BAI

Yejiang ZHANG

Jian HU

Yu ZHOU

Zhihua LU

Related Institution

China Mobile Group Yunnan Co., Ltd.

Nokia Shanghai Bell Co., Ltd.

⁰